American exceptionalism is reversing abruptly

By John Barbon

American exceptionalism represents a sort of notion that American has unique advantages in terms of economy, politics and dollar assets which has made America outperform the rest of the world continuously.

This concept has been reinforced in 2023-2034 pushed by the easing fiscal and monetary policies which support the economy to keep relatively high speed growth;also the leading position of US tech is highlighted in the new round of AI which further has catalyzed the strong performance of equity markets; Trump's winning the election reinforces the narrative of American exceptionalism, which makes the investors be more confident in the US economy and dollar assets for the foreseeable future.

But abruptly, with the inauguration of President Trump, American exceptionalism began to reverse. From the beginning of this year, US equity markets underperforms the rest of the world. It seems that the trading of American exceptionalism failed. What exactly happens behind the scene?

Firstly, the unexpectedly weak economic data raises the concern of stagflation; the most importantly, the tariffs policies implemented by the Trump administration create more uncertainties and future more intensify the concern of stagflation; also the establishment of DOGE which is regarded as a radical move to reduce the government spending is hindering congress budget negotiation, which makes expansionary fiscal policy unlikely be implemented in the future, furthermore overshadows US economic outlook; another important point, that is the breakthrough of China's Deepseek breaks the monopoly of US technology, reshapes the competitive landscape of technology globally and catalyzes the sharply plunge of US equity markets.

American exceptionalism is reversing surprisingly, which reflects the concentration risks that global capital crowds into dollar assets over the last couple of years. Since Trump took office in January, the economic and political uncertainty is rising abruptly, and the landscape of global trade, tech and geopolitics is reshaping. This is an important inflection point, the investors will examine the narrative of American exceptionalism and also adjust capital allocation strategy. In another words, the reallocation of global capital still have more room to go.

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