China’s deflation will persist significantly

By John Barbon

The latest readings show that the consumer price index rose 0.5% last month from a year earlier in China, quickening from December’s 0.1% gain, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, above the 0.4% rise estimate of economists. Core inflation, excluding volatile prices for food and fuel, sped up to 0.6% in January from 0.4% the previous month.

For 2024, CPI rose 0.2%, in line with the previous year’s pace and well below the official target of around 3% for last year, suggesting inflation missed annual targets for the 13th straight year.

Although consumer prices are expected to rise gradually, producer prices are unlikely to return to positive territory in the short term as overcapacity in industrial goods persists. The producer price index declined 2.3% on year in January, matching December’s drop and deeper than the forecast 2.1% fall. Factory-gate prices have remained deflationary for 28 straight months. If measured by the GDP deflator, it will still take a few quarters to get out of deflation.

Consumer spending reports over the holidays were mixed. While Chinese flocked to movie theatres and spent more on shopping, catering and domestic travel, per capita spending during the holidays grew by only 1.2% from a year earlier, versus a 9.4% rise in 2024, reflecting worries over wage and job security.

Deflationary pressures are likely to persist in China this year, unless policymakers can rekindle sluggish domestic demand, with tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Chinese goods adding pressure on Beijing to spur growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

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