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Since the beginning of 2025, global macroeconomic environment is way more complicated. US economic data is flashing red signal at this time around, despite keeping 2.3% growth rate and 4.1% unemployment rate for Q4.
The latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed shows that GDP may shrink by 2.8% in Q1, and consumer spending is expected to significantly decline for the first time since the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Trump administration kick off tough and full blown trade policy, especially the comprehensive tariff on Canada, Mexico (25%) and China (10% -20%), which quickly triggered market turbulence.
The market sell-off will be an important inflection point, which reflects not only the scare of investors on the policy uncertainty, also revealing the deep rooted economic challenges facing the Trump administration.
The most widely followed investor survey showed a huge ‘crash’ in bullish sentiment for stocks, also investors ditch buy-the-dip mentality during the market correction. That means the unsettled trade policy has changed the outlook of market.
Given the massive tariffs policy implemented by Trump administration which will likely result into a stagflation even recession scenario, many well-known investors revised downward the year-end target for S&P500, especially Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president lowered his S&P 500 year-end target to 6,400 from 7.000. Obviously, the market is backed into a corner. If the tariff war escalates into a full-scale trade war or consumer confidence continues to deteriorate, the economy may fall into a "self fulfilling recession expectation". Historical data suggests that during the stagflation period in the 1970s, the US stock market went through a significant downturn for more than a decade. Although the current situation has not reached this point, the red signal is flashing.Complete digital access to quality Glebors financial topic with expert analysis from industry leaders.
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