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Facing multiple headwinds both from internal and external, China is trying to make a meaningful policy shift to boost embattled economic growth by announcing plans to raise its fiscal deficit to “around 4%” of gross domestic product, which is a rare increase that marks a significant shift in policy.
The new deficit plan, which is up from 3% last year, comes amid an escalating trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. An increase to 4% of GDP had been widely expected. It marks the highest fiscal deficit on record going back to 2010. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020.
China in November had announced a support package of 10 trillion yuan over five years — primarily to tackle local government debt problems.
The country’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.
Investors were considering the effects of additional tariffs promised by Trump, including those related to oil and gas, as well as steel, aluminum, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. China was also expected to triple the quota for special sovereign bond sales to 3 trillion yuan this year, from 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and increase the year’s quota for special local government bond issuance to 4.5 trillion yuan from 3.9 trillion yuan previously.Complete digital access to quality Glebors financial topic with expert analysis from industry leaders.
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