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China has been under deflationary pressure with nominal GDP growing slower than real GDP for the seventh straight quarter in the final quarter of 2024. Consumer prices climbed just 0.2% in 2024 and 2023, while producer prices have declined for over two years.
Facing more headwinds from internal and external, China cut inflation outlook to two-decade low, also laied out stimulus plans at ‘Two Sessions’ meeting. Beijing revised down its annual consumer price inflation target to around 2% — the lowest in more than two decades — from 3% or higher in prior years.
That marks an implicit recognition of modest domestic demand. The new inflation goal would act more as a ceiling than a target to be realized.
Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley said earlier this month that “Our thesis for this year is that deflation will be persistent,” , and “China will try some new approach but ... they will just try with small steps”.
Investors have closely watched Beijing’s efforts to address the country’s economic slowdown, which has dragged on the consumer sentiment significantly. Predicting Beijing is unlikely to aggressively boost stimulus until the second half of the year, when societal unhappiness with the economic slowdown likely becomes more widespread.Complete digital access to quality Glebors financial topic with expert analysis from industry leaders.
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